Thu, Mar 14, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Arizona Coyotes 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 19 | 211 | 427 |
| DET | 110 | 010 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10ARILogan CooleySHAssists: Dylan Guenther · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 18:00DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:36ARIMichael CarconeGWGAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Matias Maccelli · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 10:02ARINick BjugstadAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 16:56ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:16ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:19DETMichael Rasmussen: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:19ARIAlexander Kerfoot: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:58ARIMichael Kesselring: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:26ARITravis Dermott: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:52DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:52ARIJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Compher won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller11:18
xG 0.55–0.21 (72%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- O'Brien – McBain – Leonard5:51
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley10:23
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Carcone – Maccelli11:10
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKesselring – Moser2:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Dermott12:36
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Durzi – Moser14:01
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat2:23
xG 0.36–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Rasmussen – Veleno5:22
xG 0.34–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – Raymond3:31
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Perron – Compher – Raymond6:16
xG 0.07–0.13 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot14:44
xG 0.73–0.40 (65%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere11:31
xG 0.47–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider13:28
xG 0.19–0.52 (27%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).