Thu, Mar 14, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 211 | 06 | 111 | 328 |
| TBL | 05 | 210 | 413 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:58NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 16:56NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 12:41TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 18:43TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 1:48NYRJack RoslovicAssists: Adam Fox, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 3:41TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 12:45TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 14:48TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–5
- P3 16:22TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brayden Point, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:21TBLConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:30TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:04NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Interference2 min
- P3 3:17NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:17TBLMathew Dumba: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:08NYRWill Cuylle: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:49
xG 0.49–0.27 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Brodzinski9:54
xG 0.27–0.23 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Wennberg – Kakko – Cuylle9:02
xG 0.01–0.05 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Roslovic10:21
xG 0.51–1.26 (29%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Miller – Schneider15:27
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Gustafsson – Jones14:50
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:08
xG 0.57–0.96 (37%)attempts 13–19goals 1–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Duclair – Point4:43
xG 1.18–0.16 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 3–0
- Paul – Sheary – Eyssimont8:14
xG 0.12–0.02 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Duclair – Cirelli6:04
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel4:56
xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh10:57
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Hedman – Dumba4:52
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:02
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).