Sat, Mar 16, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Ottawa Senators 4, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 112 | 26 | 14 | 430 |
| NYI | 15 | 113 | 113 | 02 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27NYIMatt MartinAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Kyle MacLean · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 11:46OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:22NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 6:35OTTRidly GreigAssists: Tim Stützle, Artem Zub · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 12:14OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:22NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 4:36OTTBrady TkachukPPGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:24OTTParker Kelly: Interference2 min
- P1 18:17NYIBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:53OTTDominik Kubalik: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:58NYINoah Dobson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:10OTTMathieu Joseph: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:05NYIBo Horvat: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto12:59
xG 0.50–0.25 (67%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly6:39
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Giroux – Greig – Stützle8:28
xG 0.49–0.41 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle4:37
xG 0.02–0.02 (50%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:51
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker2:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Guenette9:27
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – MacLean7:27
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom10:25
xG 0.34–0.12 (73%)attempts 17–3goals 0–1
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal3:08
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Nelson – Horvat – Barzal12:18
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov13:51
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:03
xG 0.01–0.03 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:51
xG 0.14–0.16 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).