Sat, Mar 16, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 211 | 23 | 12 | 516 |
| FLA | 012 | 218 | 120 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:21TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Nick Paul, Nick Perbix · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 3:02TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Anthony Duclair, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 6:59TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 8:23FLAMatthew TkachukSHAssists: Josh Mahura · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 11:55FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 16:08FLASam ReinhartUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 18:28TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brandon Hagel, Steven Stamkos · Backhand, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:42TBLMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:33FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:10TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:10TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:10FLASam Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:54TBLNick Perbix: Delaying game2 min
- P2 3:38FLADmitry Kulikov: Match penalty5 min · PPG
- P2 3:38TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:51FLAOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:31TBLLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:27TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:34TBLMathew Dumba: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:38TBLAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:44FLASam Bennett: Holding2 min
- P3 13:35FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P3 19:36FLACarter Verhaeghe: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 19:53FLARyan Lomberg: Kneeing2 min
- P3 19:53TBLMathew Dumba: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:53FLANiko Mikkola: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Hagel6:43
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Paul – Sheary – Eyssimont6:53
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Chaffee4:21
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Duclair – Point8:59
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Perbix9:38
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Hedman – Raddysh8:10
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- de Haan – Dumba11:12
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Luostarinen – Lundell4:59
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart6:20
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell3:27
xG 0.11–0.05 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Tkachuk4:28
xG 0.10–0.09 (52%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Mahura2:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Forsling8:15
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling3:21
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).