Wed, Mar 20, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 314 | 37 | 729 |
| WSH | 010 | 27 | 14 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 0:56TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 9:57WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Tom Wilson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 12:59TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–1
- P2 13:34WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Ivan Miroshnichenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 19:35TORJake McCabeGWGAssists: Max Domi, Auston Matthews · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 6:42WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 7:58TORBobby McMannAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 8:36TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Auston Matthews, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–3
- P3 16:02TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.11 xG7–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:05TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:10WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:24WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:34WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:15WSHTom Wilson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHolmberg – Robertson – McMann3:59
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann2:44
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Matthews8:28
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann2:00
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit14:29
xG 0.68–0.29 (70%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Rielly – McCabe14:32
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 15–14goals 3–1
- Edmundson – Liljegren15:04
xG 0.09–1.12 (7%)attempts 7–25goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Sgarbossa – McMichael5:55
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Wilson – Strome – Miroshnichenko6:14
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Wilson – Milano – Strome3:41
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Milano – Lapierre5:35
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin4:09
xG 0.30–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 2–0
- Carlson – Sandin5:39
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry9:47
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).