Thu, Mar 21, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 19 | 218 | 336 |
| DET | 07 | 39 | 38 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:15DETChristian FischerAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 13:25NYIMike ReillyAssists: Kyle MacLean, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 16:00DETAndrew CoppAssists: Christian Fischer, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.33 xG1–2
- P2 18:08DETDylan LarkinAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 5:12DETAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Christian Fischer, Michael Rasmussen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 6:22DETPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 9:34NYIJean-Gabriel PageauPPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Pierre Engvall · Snap, 0.04 xG2–5
- P3 11:20NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Adam Pelech, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.02 xG3–5
- P3 16:15DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:12DETOlli Maatta: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:51NYICal Clutterbuck: Interference2 min
- P2 6:08DETJ.T. Compher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:39DETMichael Rasmussen: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:00DETMichael Rasmussen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:39NYIRobert Bortuzzo: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Fasching – Barzal12:28
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Pageau – Engvall – Holmstrom10:08
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – MacLean8:37
xG 0.11–0.23 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Horvat10:47
xG 0.45–0.89 (34%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson13:16
xG 0.58–0.06 (90%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov2:10
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dobson2:53
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fischer – Rasmussen8:55
xG 1.00–0.34 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 3–1
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat11:18
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Czarnik – Veleno6:36
xG 0.08–0.25 (25%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond11:48
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider12:26
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Petry – Edvinsson15:23
xG 0.69–0.62 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 2–2
- Maatta – Gostisbehere15:11
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).