Tue, Mar 26, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Detroit Red Wings 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 220 | 16 | 00 | 333 |
| WSH | 07 | 112 | 29 | 12 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:09WSHNic DowdAssists: Nick Jensen, Beck Malenstyn · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:53DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jeff Petry, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 19:17DETDavid PerronPPAssists: J.T. Compher, Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–1
- P3 0:35WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: T.J. Oshie, Martin Fehérváry · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 4:49WSHDylan StromeAssists: John Carlson, Max Pacioretty · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 14:40DETPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 1:55WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: John Carlson, Hendrix Lapierre · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:57WSHRasmus Sandin: Interference2 min
- P1 13:10DETDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:51DETAndrew Copp: Interference2 min
- P2 18:23WSHAliaksei Protas: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – Czarnik – Veleno6:52
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond13:50
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat13:43
xG 0.70–0.93 (43%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen10:55
xG 0.13–0.49 (21%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edvinsson16:27
xG 0.90–0.42 (68%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Maatta – Gostisbehere12:34
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider16:55
xG 0.35–1.04 (25%)attempts 17–20goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Strome – Miroshnichenko12:16
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – McMichael13:03
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome2:23
xG 0.07–0.06 (52%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Sgarbossa – Protas – Lapierre5:29
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry14:12
xG 0.97–0.80 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 2–2
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry2:39
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:23
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).