Wed, Mar 27, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 518 | 015 | 19 | 642 |
| BUF | 011 | 217 | 08 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37OTTArtem ZubAssists: Mark Kastelic, Boris Katchouk · Poke, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 4:56OTTBoris KatchoukAssists: Parker Kelly, Mark Kastelic · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 6:01OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 8:49OTTJakob ChychrunAssists: Shane Pinto · Slap, 0.08 xG4–0
- P1 19:11OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Thomas Chabot, Shane Pinto · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–0
- P2 2:54BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Alex Tuch, Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–1
- P2 13:07BUFConnor CliftonAssists: Jacob Bryson · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 16:43OTTShane PintoENAssists: Drake Batherson, Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.68 xG6–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:39OTTJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 15:23BUFBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P1 18:42OTTParker Kelly: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:42BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:31BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:22OTTRidly Greig: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:22OTTRidly Greig: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:22BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:22BUFRasmus Dahlin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKatchouk – Kastelic – Kelly8:02
xG 1.13–0.19 (86%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Pinto10:05
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Giroux – Crookshank – Stützle11:17
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Joseph – Greig7:59
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom9:11
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:49
xG 1.01–0.60 (63%)attempts 17–22goals 2–1
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker12:19
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Greenway – Krebs4:43
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka13:22
xG 0.55–0.56 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Greenway – Cozens – Benson3:22
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Olofsson – Robinson5:51
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power2:26
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson10:39
xG 0.48–0.49 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin8:07
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).