Thu, Mar 28, 2024·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Nashville Predators 4, Arizona Coyotes 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 213 | 19 | 115 | 437 |
| ARI | 212 | 415 | 213 | 840 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22NSHJason ZuckerAssists: Cody Glass, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 5:11NSHJason ZuckerAssists: Cody Glass, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 8:00ARIJack McBainAssists: Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 17:00ARILogan CooleyAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 7:11ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Dylan Guenther · Slap, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 8:11ARILogan CooleyAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P2 11:08NSHGustav NyquistPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 12:36ARINick BjugstadGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–5
- P2 16:05ARINick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller, Sean Durzi · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–6
- P3 13:57ARIMatias MaccelliENAssists: Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–7
- P3 16:40NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Tyson Barrie · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–7
- P3 18:28ARILogan CooleyENAssists: Joshua Brown · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 19:22NSHKiefer Sherwood: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:58NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 5:58ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:52NSHLuke Evangelista: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:08ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:31NSHMark Jankowski: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:47ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Sherwood – Smith8:44
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista11:40
xG 0.89–0.41 (69%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Zucker – Sissons – Glass10:26
xG 0.59–0.85 (41%)attempts 7–17goals 2–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:56
xG 0.53–0.92 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Stastney15:49
xG 1.59–0.82 (66%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Josi5:30
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Schenn – Josi10:23
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–3
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMcBain – Maccelli – Doan10:28
xG 1.05–0.32 (77%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Crouse – Guenther – Cooley9:51
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Carcone8:02
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Schmaltz – Keller12:16
xG 0.75–1.20 (39%)attempts 18–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestVälimäki – Kesselring12:52
xG 1.05–0.88 (55%)attempts 19–17goals 2–1
- Durzi – Moser16:52
xG 0.95–1.06 (47%)attempts 21–26goals 0–1
- Brown – Dermott16:39
xG 0.46–1.22 (28%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).