Mon, Apr 1, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 19 | 311 | 432 |
| TBL | 016 | 110 | 110 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:37DETPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 8:36TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 3:40DETRobby FabbriAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 5:59TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 17:20DETDavid PerronGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, J.T. Compher · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 18:57DETLucas RaymondENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:22DETAustin Czarnik: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:07DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:32TBLBrandon Hagel: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:14TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:14TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:11DETAndrew Copp: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Compher – Raymond10:16
xG 0.49–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Czarnik – Veleno2:49
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Czarnik – DeBrincat2:16
xG 0.01–0.20 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Larkin – DeBrincat9:17
xG 0.16–0.51 (24%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider16:25
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson2:03
xG 0.00–0.03 (6%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Walman10:38
xG 0.07–0.37 (16%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Hagel9:37
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee6:09
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Chaffee2:51
xG 0.19–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot6:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Cernak11:57
xG 0.34–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:09
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg11:37
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).