Mon, Apr 1, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 17 | 315 | 430 |
| TOR | 28 | 38 | 17 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:59TORNick RobertsonAssists: Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:32TORAuston MatthewsAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 0:47FLABrandon MontourAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 1:26TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Auston Matthews, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 8:32TORDavid KampfUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
- P2 14:05TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Nick Robertson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 2:12FLAVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Niko Mikkola, Eetu Luostarinen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 11:58FLASam ReinhartAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 18:10FLASam BennettAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.05 xG4–5
- P3 19:14TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:00FLARyan Lomberg: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:47TORMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P1 15:28TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min
- P1 18:39TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:01FLAJonah Gadjovich: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:04FLAAleksander Barkov: Interference2 min
- P3 6:19TORSimon Benoit: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Luostarinen – Lundell2:29
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Tkachuk9:05
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart8:36
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Stenlund – Lomberg – Gadjovich7:38
xG 0.03–0.50 (6%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola4:08
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling14:33
xG 0.68–0.70 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Montour4:53
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Domi – Matthews10:46
xG 1.05–0.13 (89%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar7:48
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann8:53
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – Knies5:20
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 2–9goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit12:50
xG 1.17–0.11 (91%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Brodie – Lyubushkin13:13
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Giordano – Timmins8:26
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).