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Ice Lab

Mon, Apr 1, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

TOR winsFLA wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:14Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov
  3. P1 1:16Shot by Timmins, saved by Bobrovsky
  4. P1 2:48Shot by Barkov, saved by Samsonov
  5. P1 3:00Lomberg: Boarding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Tavares, McCabe, Dewar, Benoit · FLA Barkov, Ekblad, Reinhart, Forsling, Lomberg

  6. P1 3:03Shot by Tavares, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  7. P1 4:15Shot by Tavares, saved by Bobrovsky5v4
  8. P1 4:35Shot by Reinhart, saved by Samsonov5v4
  9. P1 5:20Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov
  10. P1 5:32Shot by Dewar, saved by Bobrovsky
  11. P1 5:39Shot by Lomberg, saved by Samsonov
  12. P1 6:21Shot by Domi, saved by Bobrovsky
  13. P1 8:47Giordano: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Timmins, Holmberg, Robertson, Knies · FLA Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Tarasenko, Luostarinen, Lundell

  14. P1 11:18Shot by Lundell, saved by Samsonov
  15. P1 13:59Goal by Robertson (Knies)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson, Knies · FLA Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Stenlund, Lomberg, Gadjovich

  16. P1 14:32Goal by Matthews (Brodie)+12 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Bertuzzi, Domi, Matthews, Lyubushkin · FLA Verhaeghe, Barkov, Reinhart, Montour, Mikkola

  17. P1 15:17Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Samsonov
  18. P1 15:28Tavares: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Tavares, Nylander, Timmins, McMann · FLA Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Tarasenko, Luostarinen, Lundell

  19. P1 16:42Shot by Bennett, saved by Samsonov4v5
  20. P1 17:45Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Bobrovsky
  21. P1 18:39Knies: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson, Knies · FLA Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Bennett, Montour, Mikkola

  22. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:28Shot by Verhaeghe, saved by Samsonov4v5
  25. P2 0:47Goal by Montour (Verhaeghe)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Kampf, Dewar, Knies · FLA Verhaeghe, Barkov, Reinhart, Montour, Tkachuk

  26. P2 1:26Goal by Bertuzzi (Matthews, Domi)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Matthews, Benoit · FLA Tarasenko, Ekblad, Forsling, Luostarinen, Lundell

  27. P2 2:01Gadjovich: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann · FLA Montour, Stenlund, Mikkola, Lomberg, Gadjovich

  28. P2 2:49Shot by Reinhart, saved by Samsonov5v4
  29. P2 3:18Shot by Luostarinen, saved by Samsonov5v4
  30. P2 4:01Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Bobrovsky
  31. P2 4:28Shot by Kampf, saved by Bobrovsky
  32. P2 5:03Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Samsonov
  33. P2 5:04Shot by Lundell, saved by Samsonov
  34. P2 7:54Shot by Dewar, saved by Bobrovsky
  35. P2 8:29Shot by Kampf, saved by Bobrovsky
  36. P2 8:32Goal by Kampf, unassisted+7 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Reaves, McCabe, Kampf, Dewar, Benoit · FLA Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Tarasenko, Luostarinen, Lundell

  37. P2 9:04Barkov: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Nylander, Lyubushkin, McMann · FLA Verhaeghe, Barkov, Reinhart, Montour, Mikkola

  38. P2 13:52Shot by Lundell, saved by Samsonov
  39. P2 14:05Goal by Knies (Holmberg, Robertson)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Holmberg, Benoit, Robertson, Knies · FLA Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Tarasenko, Luostarinen, Lundell

  40. P2 15:33Shot by Nylander, saved by Bobrovsky
  41. P2 0:00Period end
  42. P3 0:00Period start
  43. P3 0:16Shot by Brodie, saved by Stolarz
  44. P3 2:12Goal by Tarasenko (Mikkola, Luostarinen)+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Giordano, Timmins, Holmberg, Robertson, Knies · FLA Kulikov, Tarasenko, Mikkola, Luostarinen, Lundell

  45. P3 2:27Shot by Lyubushkin, saved by Stolarz
  46. P3 3:06Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov
  47. P3 3:07Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov
  48. P3 3:19Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Samsonov
  49. P3 3:35Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Samsonov
  50. P3 5:25Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Samsonov
  51. P3 6:19Benoit: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Domi, Kampf, Dewar, Benoit · FLA Tarasenko, Barkov, Reinhart, Forsling, Rodrigues

  52. P3 7:06Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Samsonov4v5
  53. P3 8:16Shot by Brodie, saved by Stolarz4v5
  54. P3 10:05Shot by Domi, saved by Stolarz
  55. P3 11:58Goal by Reinhart (Tarasenko, Barkov)+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Holmberg, Robertson, Knies · FLA Tarasenko, Barkov, Ekblad, Reinhart, Forsling

  56. P3 12:17Shot by Tavares, saved by Stolarz
  57. P3 14:21Shot by Domi, saved by Stolarz
  58. P3 16:35Shot by Lundell, saved by Samsonov
  59. P3 16:56Shot by Ekblad, saved by Samsonov
  60. P3 17:03Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Samsonov5v6
  61. P3 17:03Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Samsonov5v6
  62. P3 17:38Shot by Montour, saved by Samsonov5v6
  63. P3 17:43Shot by Bennett, saved by Samsonov5v6
  64. P3 18:10Goal by Bennett (Tarasenko, Tkachuk)5v6+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Reaves, Brodie, Kampf, Lyubushkin, Dewar · FLA Tarasenko, Barkov, Reinhart, Bennett, Montour, Tkachuk

  65. P3 19:14Goal by Matthews, unassisted5v6+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Nylander, Matthews, McMann · FLA Tarasenko, Barkov, Reinhart, Bennett, Montour, Tkachuk

  66. P3 0:00Period end
  67. P3 0:00Final