Tue, Apr 2, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 14 | 18 | 014 | 226 |
| BUF | 213 | 112 | 310 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:46WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Michael Sgarbossa, Hendrix Lapierre · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 15:42BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:50BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 10:54BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 19:14WSHDylan StromePPAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 3:03BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: JJ Peterka, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 4:48BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jack Quinn, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
- P3 5:33BUFAlex TuchAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:00WSHRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:51BUFPeyton Krebs: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:38BUFJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:46WSHMax Pacioretty: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:58BUFOwen Power: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Pacioretty – Milano – Strome11:05
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Sgarbossa – Lapierre – Miroshnichenko5:09
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – McMichael – Protas5:25
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Sgarbossa – Protas – Lapierre5:07
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Alexeyev2:21
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Alexeyev12:36
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:59
xG 0.53–0.66 (45%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka14:37
xG 1.28–0.24 (84%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Rousek10:25
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson9:05
xG 0.70–0.81 (46%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Olofsson – Robinson8:34
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power18:14
xG 1.72–0.36 (83%)attempts 31–13goals 2–1
- Clifton – Bryson13:33
xG 0.70–0.45 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Byram17:27
xG 0.43–0.79 (36%)attempts 10–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).