Thu, Apr 4, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 28 | 420 | 17 | 735 |
| MTL | 18 | 16 | 216 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Newhook · Bat, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:45TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.30 xG1–1
- P1 16:26TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Tyler Motte, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.34 xG2–1
- P2 4:42MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Alex Newhook, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 7:58TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Calvin de Haan · Slap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 9:12TBLNick PaulAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 13:18TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Darren Raddysh, Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P2 17:45TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos · Slap, 0.16 xG6–2
- P3 8:40MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Arber Xhekaj, Mike Matheson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 11:51MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.12 xG6–4
- P3 19:06TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.64 xG7–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:33MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:33MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:33MTLJayden Struble: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:33TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:33TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:11TBLCalvin de Haan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:12MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:39TBLAustin Watson: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:58MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:46MTLJayden Struble: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:02TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:53TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:53TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:53MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestWatson – Glendening – Motte6:50
xG 0.61–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel6:23
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee8:11
xG 0.45–0.50 (47%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Duclair – Point9:25
xG 0.14–0.38 (28%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Cernak9:14
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- de Haan – Dumba2:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh8:16
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:13
xG 0.91–0.30 (75%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Newhook7:08
xG 0.72–0.44 (62%)attempts 11–5goals 2–1
- Anderson – Evans – Ylonen6:54
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- White – Pezzetta – Harvey-Pinard7:19
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj5:01
xG 0.40–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Savard – Struble6:43
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Matheson – Xhekaj2:36
xG 0.28–0.11 (71%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).