Sat, Apr 6, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 116 | 312 | 434 |
| PIT | 114 | 310 | 14 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 6:06PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Erik Karlsson, Michael Bunting · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 12:15TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 14:39PITKris LetangUnassisted · Slap, 0.00 xG1–3
- P2 16:57PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 0:25TBLNick PaulAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Mitchell Chaffee · Snap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 7:23TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 10:45TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 14:32PITMichael BuntingGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:10TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:30TBLHaydn Fleury: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:52PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:31PITPierre-Olivier Joseph: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:39PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:24PITMarcus Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Malkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Stamkos – Duclair – Paul2:00
xG 0.03–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Glendening – Motte – Sheary4:42
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee3:04
xG 0.05–0.06 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel3:49
xG 0.14–0.30 (31%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cernak – Lilleberg2:24
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh11:11
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Cernak – Perbix3:25
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Bunting11:44
xG 1.09–0.34 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 3–1
- Crosby – Rust – O'Connor11:05
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Carter – Puljujarvi – Bemstrom4:42
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen7:35
xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson16:56
xG 1.06–0.22 (83%)attempts 27–11goals 3–1
- Shea – St. Ivany10:53
xG 0.72–0.13 (84%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph14:50
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).