Tue, Apr 9, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 2, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 25 | 07 | 09 | 221 |
| DAL | 17 | 211 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09BUFAlex TuchAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Bowen Byram · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 6:15DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 9:38BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Owen Power, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 3:38DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Thomas Harley · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:08DALJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Chris Tanev, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 8:59DALCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:36BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:53BUFJack Quinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:22DALCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:54DALMiro Heiskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:54DALMiro Heiskanen: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Greenway – Jost3:44
xG 0.33–0.16 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson6:00
xG 0.18–0.03 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cozens – Rousek – Benson2:46
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Girgensons – Jost – Rousek4:37
xG 0.01–0.19 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Byram13:54
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2
- Clifton – Bryson11:08
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power14:48
xG 0.04–0.79 (5%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment11:01
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:20
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:10
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Benn – Stankoven – Johnston11:08
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Lindell8:06
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist4:49
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Tanev6:04
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).