Thu, Apr 11, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 14 | 08 | 112 | 03 | 1 | 327 |
| TBL | 29 | 08 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:45OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 9:45TBLConor ShearyAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:56TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 2:11OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 2. OTT Brady Tkachuk scored
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. OTT Claude Giroux stopped
- 5. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
Penalties (12)
- P2 5:42OTTJacob Bernard-Docker: Interference2 min
- P2 6:40OTTThomas Chabot: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:03OTTZack MacEwen: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:05TBLMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 19:03TBLNick Paul: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLVictor Hedman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:49OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P3 14:28TBLEmil Lilleberg: Cross checking2 min
- OT 4:56OTTRidly Greig: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Pinto11:22
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Imama – MacEwen – Smejkal5:51
xG 0.07–0.00 (95%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Kastelic – Kelly8:05
xG 0.20–0.17 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Pinto2:10
xG 0.06–0.05 (53%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom12:49
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Chabot – Chychrun3:52
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker11:36
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Sheary – Point10:30
xG 0.89–0.06 (94%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Motte – Paul – Eyssimont4:38
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Jeannot4:33
xG 0.00–0.13 (3%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel10:29
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh11:46
xG 0.87–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Raddysh – Perbix3:45
xG 0.12–0.07 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg2:36
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).