Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 213 | 09 | 012 | 234 |
| WSH | 29 | 014 | 211 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Max Pacioretty, Hendrix Lapierre · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:06TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Brayden Point, Darren Raddysh · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 14:00WSHSonny MilanoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P1 16:24TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Steven Stamkos, Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 8:29WSHJohn CarlsonPPGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 16:46WSHNic DowdAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.32 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:39TBLSteven Stamkos: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:01TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:01WSHNic Dowd: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:22WSHDylan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:24TBLTanner Jeannot: Boarding2 min
- P3 7:17TBLNick Paul: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Sheary – Jeannot7:15
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee7:54
xG 0.04–0.01 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel10:09
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Duclair – Point10:22
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Perbix13:35
xG 0.70–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Dumba – Lilleberg13:28
xG 0.78–0.49 (61%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Perbix – Lilleberg2:21
xG 0.06–0.00 (94%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Strome – Protas12:56
xG 0.58–0.29 (67%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn10:06
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Milano – Lapierre7:56
xG 0.26–0.53 (32%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Oshie – McMichael11:46
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Alexeyev7:01
xG 0.69–0.17 (81%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Carlson – Alexeyev3:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Jensen – Alexeyev6:12
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).