Sat, Apr 13, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 115 | 19 | 213 | 437 |
| NSH | 310 | 313 | 014 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:04CBJJames MalatestaAssists: Justin Danforth · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 2:49NSHTommy NovakAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 4:19NSHRoman JosiPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 13:25NSHTommy NovakAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 4:52NSHCody GlassAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Mark Jankowski · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 10:23CBJAlexandre TexierAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 13:12NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–5
- P2 15:09NSHRoman JosiAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–6
- P3 6:02CBJTrey Fix-WolanskyAssists: Justin Danforth, Erik Gudbranson · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–6
- P3 19:30CBJTrey Fix-WolanskyAssists: Justin Danforth, James Malatesta · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:12CBJKirill Marchenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03NSHLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:03CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:18CBJAlex Nylander: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:12CBJAlexandre Texier: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:15NSHJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDanforth – Fix-Wolansky – Malatesta6:08
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 2–1
- Danforth – Fix-Wolansky – Pyyhtia4:12
xG 0.14–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Nylander – Voronkov11:55
xG 0.67–0.77 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Pyyhtia7:30
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski20:42
xG 1.03–0.62 (63%)attempts 29–15goals 3–1
- Jiricek – Blankenburg14:32
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Provorov16:27
xG 0.30–1.61 (16%)attempts 15–23goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Jankowski – Glass12:52
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Novak – Beauvillier – Evangelista11:08
xG 1.05–0.75 (58%)attempts 13–19goals 3–2
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:36
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- McCarron – Anderson-Dolan – Sherwood12:15
xG 0.53–0.55 (49%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi13:11
xG 1.39–0.74 (65%)attempts 20–19goals 3–1
- McDonagh – Schenn2:42
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon2:10
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).