Tue, Apr 16, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 04 | 08 | 226 |
| FLA | 06 | 429 | 17 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:18TORNoah GregorUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 0:28FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 10:32FLASam BennettAssists: Gustav Forsling, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 10:42FLASam ReinhartGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 13:42FLABrandon MontourAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.02 xG2–4
- P3 17:40FLASam ReinhartENAssists: Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–5
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:04FLAGustav Forsling: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:37FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:37TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:37TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:39FLAEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
- P1 16:44TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:44TORTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:44FLAUvis Balinskis: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:45TORTyler Bertuzzi: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 5:36TORJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:22TORIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P3 0:56TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P3 4:16FLASam Bennett: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:25FLANiko Mikkola: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:15FLABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Marner – Matthews8:43
xG 0.80–0.35 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 0–2
- Gregor – Holmberg – Robertson6:14
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar6:31
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Knies6:49
xG 0.07–0.71 (9%)attempts 2–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit10:51
xG 0.93–0.02 (98%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Liljegren8:28
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Rielly – Lyubushkin9:11
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–3
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk9:09
xG 0.93–0.13 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Tarasenko – Barkov – Reinhart9:19
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Cousins – Stenlund – Gadjovich5:49
xG 0.03–0.39 (6%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Rodrigues – Luostarinen – Lundell7:50
xG 0.05–0.46 (9%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Forsling12:28
xG 1.19–0.72 (62%)attempts 19–13goals 3–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola13:18
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Mahura – Balinskis9:13
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).