Wed, Apr 17, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 116 | 09 | 313 | 438 |
| TBL | 210 | 314 | 18 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:58TBLNick PaulAssists: Anthony Duclair, Mathew Dumba · Tip-in, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 6:14TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 13:18TORRyan ReavesAssists: David Kampf, Connor Dewar · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 6:37TBLAnthony DuclairAssists: Nick Paul, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 17:05TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 17:57TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 11:27TBLTanner JeannotAssists: Michael Eyssimont, Mitchell Chaffee · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–6
- P3 14:02TORTJ BrodieAssists: Connor Dewar, David Kampf · Slap, 0.05 xG2–6
- P3 16:20TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–6
- P3 19:25TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Conor Timmins · Slap, 0.13 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:15TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:54TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P2 8:00TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:59TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:28TORConor Timmins: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:28TORConor Timmins: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:28TBLMathew Dumba: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TORSimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:11TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Marner – Matthews8:11
xG 0.47–0.33 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Knies7:39
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar8:36
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Gregor – Holmberg – Robertson10:26
xG 0.64–1.10 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Timmins12:17
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Liljegren – Benoit8:34
xG 0.35–1.04 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–3
- Brodie – Lyubushkin13:42
xG 0.30–1.18 (21%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestEyssimont – Jeannot – Chaffee4:11
xG 0.63–0.14 (82%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Duclair – Paul3:08
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel4:53
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee3:03
xG 0.11–0.09 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Perbix2:32
xG 0.74–0.08 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- de Haan – Dumba11:18
xG 0.90–0.26 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Dumba – Perbix2:15
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).