Thu, Oct 10, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 17 | 04 | 422 |
| NJD | 18 | 18 | 07 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18TORMax PaciorettyAssists: Pontus Holmberg, Conor Timmins · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 11:29TORBobby McMannAssists: Jake McCabe, Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 14:46TORSteven LorentzGWGAssists: David Kampf · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 19:18NJDJesper BrattPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 14:52TORJohn TavaresAssists: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
- P2 19:54NJDTimo MeierAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:59TORJohn Tavares: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:06NJDBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:17TORConor Timmins: Interference2 min
- P2 12:32TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:11TORSimon Benoit: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42NJDDawson Mercer: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:41TORWilliam Nylander: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLorentz – Kampf – McMann7:56
xG 0.62–0.19 (76%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Holmberg – Robertson7:03
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Domi – Nylander10:02
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:12
xG 0.12–0.58 (17%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Rielly12:03
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:04
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe13:15
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMeier – Bratt – Hughes10:43
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer8:34
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lazar – Bastian – Cotter6:00
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Noesen7:13
xG 0.05–0.18 (20%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Hamilton13:49
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 24–14goals 0–2
- Dillon – Kovacevic2:14
xG 0.07–0.04 (64%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Siegenthaler – Kovacevic14:25
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).