Thu, Oct 17, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 310 | 110 | 424 |
| CBJ | 29 | 29 | 27 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12CBJEgor ChinakhovPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 19:28CBJKirill MarchenkoUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 9:34BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jason Zucker, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 12:18CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 17:29BUFJiri KulichAssists: Dylan Cozens, Henri Jokiharju · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 17:58CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Cole Sillinger, Jake Christiansen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P2 19:35BUFOwen PowerUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 0:15CBJZachary Aston-ReeseGWGAssists: Jake Christiansen, Mathieu Olivier · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 8:10CBJDamon SeversonAssists: Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.16 xG3–6
- P3 17:51BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.05 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:26BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 7:09BUFDylan Cozens: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:58CBJMathieu Olivier: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:52BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:28CBJIvan Provorov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Kulich – Benson9:17
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod10:20
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 8–9goals 2–2
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs6:18
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka11:55
xG 0.19–0.63 (23%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Samuelsson7:35
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin10:10
xG 0.18–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Byram7:24
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Chinakhov13:26
xG 0.70–0.17 (80%)attempts 19–5goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Aston-Reese4:22
xG 0.12–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Johnson – Fantilli3:41
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Olivier – Aston-Reese – Fantilli2:58
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Christiansen12:56
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 3–0
- Werenski – Provorov13:39
xG 0.54–0.37 (60%)attempts 22–14goals 1–1
- Provorov – Harris2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).