Tue, Oct 22, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 113 | 19 | 228 |
| CBJ | 315 | 214 | 19 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:29CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ivan Provorov, Kevin Labanc · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 6:21CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 12:42CBJMathieu OlivierGWGAssists: Justin Danforth, Jake Christiansen · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 5:35CBJSean MonahanAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 11:36CBJMathieu OlivierAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Justin Danforth · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–5
- P2 18:59TORMatthew KniesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 11:58CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Sean Monahan, Cole Sillinger · Snap, 0.11 xG1–6
- P3 13:03TORNick RobertsonAssists: John Tavares, Simon Benoit · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 14:01TORMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:13CBJDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:45TORNick Robertson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:45CBJDavid Jiricek: Embellishment2 min
- P3 0:50CBJKirill Marchenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:46TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:19TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58TORRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58TORRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58CBJMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:44CBJJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Marner – Matthews3:36
xG 0.75–0.02 (97%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies5:39
xG 0.68–0.74 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 0–3
- Domi – Nylander – McMann4:33
xG 0.01–0.13 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Robertson7:05
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit6:35
xG 0.43–0.08 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Tanev – McCabe2:35
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Timmins3:17
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Labanc7:29
xG 0.15–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Monahan – Marchenko – Sillinger10:36
xG 1.09–0.97 (53%)attempts 21–17goals 2–0
- Olivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese7:07
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 2–2
- Pyyhtia – Chinakhov – Fantilli9:48
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov12:29
xG 1.31–1.00 (57%)attempts 21–19goals 3–0
- Severson – Christiansen13:21
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 2–1
- Johnson – Jiricek11:39
xG 0.16–0.38 (29%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).