Thu, Oct 24, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 29 | 110 | 28 | 527 |
| TOR | 010 | 117 | 014 | 141 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:07STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 10:31STLDylan HollowayPPGWGAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 6:20TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 7:58STLAlexandre TexierAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 3:45STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 16:42STLDylan HollowayENAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.73 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:42STLRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P1 9:01TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 11:31STLJake Neighbours: Holding2 min
- P2 16:51STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 4:10STLJake Neighbours: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:10TORMatthew Knies: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:11STLScott Perunovich: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:28TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holloway won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Texier11:23
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours9:51
xG 0.60–0.76 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Faksa – Sundqvist – Toropchenko6:58
xG 0.00–0.17 (1%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Joseph – Holloway7:37
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Parayko18:00
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 14–25goals 1–0
- Joseph – Perunovich8:25
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Faulk – Broberg15:05
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 9–26goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Kampf – Holmberg9:09
xG 0.35–0.10 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Lorentz – Robertson6:24
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Domi – Lorentz – Robertson3:35
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Domi – Nylander – McMann7:12
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly12:34
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Tanev – Rielly2:14
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Tanev – McCabe12:24
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 17–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).