Sat, Oct 26, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 216 | 04 | 315 | 535 |
| CGY | 16 | 112 | 111 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Kevin Bahl, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 1:51WPGNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 17:37WPGKyle ConnorSHAssists: Adam Lowry, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 17:28CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 1:01WPGDylan SambergAssists: Neal Pionk, Mason Appleton · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 4:19CGYNazem KadriAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 16:16WPGCole PerfettiPPGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 18:46WPGMason AppletonENAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:44CGYAdam Klapka: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:10WPGNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:14WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:00WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:37WPGNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:47CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:47WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:47CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:17CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:59CGYNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:46CGYNazem Kadri: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:11CGYRasmus Andersson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:11WPGMorgan Barron: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:18
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:49
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari4:47
xG 0.05–0.13 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:16
xG 0.31–0.71 (30%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamberg – Pionk11:45
xG 0.27–0.21 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Stanley11:47
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey13:39
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 12–19goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Mantha – Pospisil8:30
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary12:59
xG 0.53–0.39 (58%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka7:01
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:14
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Miromanov15:24
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Andersson – Bahl14:50
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
- Hanley – Pachal7:30
xG 0.06–0.25 (19%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).