Sun, Oct 27, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Ottawa Senators 4, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 08 | 416 | 430 |
| COL | 18 | 111 | 313 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:52COLNikolai KovalenkoAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 19:42COLJosh MansonAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Samuel Girard · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–2
- P3 9:15OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Tyler Kleven, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 11:23OTTNick CousinsAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 13:29COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.31 xG2–3
- P3 15:01COLRoss ColtonAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 16:48OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:45COLNathan MacKinnonENGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–5
- P3 19:50OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk · Slap, 0.06 xG4–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 3:17OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:37COLMikko Rantanen: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Tkachuk – Stützle2:11
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 2–1
- Amadio – Gaudette – Gregor3:48
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gregor – Greig2:42
xG 0.04–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Batherson13:49
xG 0.74–0.74 (50%)attempts 19–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven12:22
xG 0.47–0.58 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot15:54
xG 0.68–1.01 (41%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson16:40
xG 0.37–1.81 (17%)attempts 10–29goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Colton11:46
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Mittelstadt – Kovalenko – O'Connor6:57
xG 0.58–0.14 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Wagner – Stienburg – Ivan6:45
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Wood – Kelly – Kiviranta7:21
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard15:42
xG 1.31–0.67 (66%)attempts 21–10goals 2–1
- Toews – Malinski3:57
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar13:39
xG 0.84–0.58 (59%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).