Mon, Oct 28, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Florida Panthers 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 26 | 111 | 214 | 531 |
| BUF | 08 | 212 | 08 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:01FLAJesper BoqvistAssists: Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 11:56FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.27 xG2–0
- P2 10:45BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, JJ Peterka · Bat, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 12:37BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Owen Power · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 16:44FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 14:35FLASam BennettPPAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 15:43FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:38BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:21BUFHenri Jokiharju: Interference2 min
- P2 8:14BUFOwen Power: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:38FLAEetu Luostarinen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:15FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:32BUFPeyton Krebs: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:32FLAA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:00BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:00FLAJesper Boqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:10FLACarter Verhaeghe: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk12:23
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Greer – Giles – Samoskevich6:00
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Barkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:02
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell7:50
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:33
xG 0.64–0.38 (63%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola15:47
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 10–18goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Balinskis11:40
xG 0.52–0.51 (50%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAube-Kubel – Lafferty – Malenstyn2:01
xG 0.35–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs3:14
xG 0.02–0.01 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod10:26
xG 0.07–0.15 (30%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Krebs – Cozens – Quinn6:08
xG 0.23–0.50 (32%)attempts 3–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power3:14
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Byram2:36
xG 0.07–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power2:04
xG 0.06–0.03 (65%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).