Wed, Oct 30, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 310 | 19 | 12 | 521 |
| COL | 18 | 014 | 113 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 3:36TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 5:32TBLConor GeekieGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.20 xG3–0
- P1 14:56COLIvan IvanPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 6:28TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 10:57COLCale MakarAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–2
- P3 18:40TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 12:19COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:10TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:33TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33COLMatthew Stienburg: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:33TBLEmil Lilleberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:58TBLCam Atkinson: Interference2 min
- P2 13:44TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:18TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:18COLMatthew Stienburg: Charging5 min
- P2 17:18COLMatthew Stienburg: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 9:22COLChris Wagner: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:22TBLMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:50COLT.J. Tynan: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point8:41
xG 0.81–0.20 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie6:33
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee9:11
xG 0.10–0.37 (22%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Glendening – Girgensons5:32
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Raddysh2:10
xG 0.60–0.05 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Hedman – Moser8:45
xG 0.72–0.38 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak8:59
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Kovalenko – Ivan2:03
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Mittelstadt2:24
xG 0.30–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Kiviranta10:17
xG 0.55–0.34 (62%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kelly – Kovalenko2:38
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar10:19
xG 0.80–0.31 (72%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- de Haan – Malinski5:06
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).