Fri, Nov 1, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 215 | 111 | 436 |
| BUF | 112 | 010 | 213 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03BUFDylan CozensPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 9:43NYIBo HorvatAssists: Anders Lee · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:25NYIMaxim TsyplakovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:20NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 5:27BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 8:08NYIJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Bo Horvat, Anders Lee · Poke, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 18:59BUFOwen PowerAssists: Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:04NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:56NYIAdam Pelech: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:26BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:12NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:48NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:32BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:20NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:20BUFJason Zucker: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:01NYIScott Mayfield: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 9:59BUFJJ Peterka: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:45NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:45BUFSam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Horvat11:47
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Tsyplakov9:12
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Fasching – Wahlstrom – MacLean5:22
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom6:16
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov16:09
xG 1.03–0.88 (54%)attempts 15–19goals 3–1
- Mayfield – Pulock9:23
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock5:39
xG 0.13–0.28 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka8:36
xG 0.87–0.35 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Zucker – Krebs – Quinn4:03
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson2:22
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Greenway – McLeod – Cozens6:06
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin8:44
xG 0.58–0.07 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Byram – Power8:41
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin2:42
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).