Tue, Nov 5, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 013 | 112 | 013 | 138 |
| BUF | 110 | 113 | 311 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:17BUFBowen ByramGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:31OTTRidly GreigAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Poke, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 0:21BUFBowen ByramAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 0:37BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, JJ Peterka · Deflected, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 12:08BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (19)
- P1 5:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 5:59OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:59BUFJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:08BUFJacob Bryson: Holding2 min
- P2 0:24BUFSam Lafferty: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:41BUFJJ Peterka: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:41OTTDrake Batherson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 12:16OTTZack MacEwen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:37OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 11:37OTTAdam Gaudette: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:08BUFZach Benson: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:48BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:48BUFZach Benson: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48OTTMichael Amadio: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:48OTTMichael Amadio: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48BUFDennis Gilbert: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:48BUFDennis Gilbert: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:48OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Greig – Stützle7:00
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–2
- Amadio – Gregor – Ostapchuk5:56
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen8:33
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Batherson6:48
xG 0.29–1.08 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot13:56
xG 1.00–0.49 (67%)attempts 23–8goals 1–1
- Chabot – Sanderson2:25
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven12:50
xG 0.52–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka7:08
xG 1.28–0.26 (83%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod10:07
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Benson6:28
xG 0.09–0.23 (28%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs10:09
xG 0.27–0.83 (25%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Power11:52
xG 1.15–0.28 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Byram12:03
xG 0.55–0.69 (44%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
- Byram – Power3:06
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).