Sat, Nov 9, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 02 | 19 | 010 | 121 |
| TOR | 17 | 312 | 08 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:55TORConor TimminsAssists: Simon Benoit, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:39TORWilliam NylanderPPGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 8:24TORMitch MarnerSHAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
- P2 9:26MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Emil Heineman, Lane Hutson · Bat, 0.20 xG1–3
- P2 12:15TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P2 5:10MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52TORJake McCabe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:41MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:13TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:41MTLEmil Heineman: Interference2 min
- P2 18:36TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:36MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:10MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Dvorak10:29
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Slafkovský4:24
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Heineman – Condotta7:18
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Dach – Caufield8:33
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Xhekaj10:10
xG 0.51–0.24 (68%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Savard – Hutson7:37
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Savard – Guhle5:18
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – McMann5:36
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander4:31
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – McMann3:50
xG 0.07–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Marner – Knies12:31
xG 0.13–0.38 (26%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Timmins – Benoit12:37
xG 0.24–0.42 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly14:56
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 5–21goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe16:04
xG 0.26–0.69 (27%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).