Fri, Nov 15, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Washington Capitals 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 25 | 28 | 17 | 520 |
| COL | 15 | 19 | 05 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00COLParker KellyAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 4:25WSHJakub VranaPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 7:48WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Tom Wilson, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 1:53WSHConnor McMichaelGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 4:03COLNikolai KovalenkoAssists: Parker Kelly, Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 9:21WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 19:57WSHRasmus SandinENAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.69 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 2:39COLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39COLCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:50WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – McMichael10:39
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Eller – Vrana – Mangiapane8:32
xG 0.09–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas12:28
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime8:19
xG 0.03–0.28 (9%)attempts 4–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fehérváry14:13
xG 0.46–0.25 (64%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Roy – Sandin16:37
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
- Carlson – Chychrun14:53
xG 0.11–0.52 (18%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt11:24
xG 0.72–0.17 (80%)attempts 14–5goals 0–2
- Wood – Kelly – Kovalenko5:10
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- O'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan9:42
xG 0.10–0.21 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:39
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:54
xG 0.64–0.20 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- de Haan – Malinski7:23
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
- Girard – Malinski4:47
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).