Sat, Nov 23, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 011 | 39 | 431 |
| SJS | 116 | 112 | 05 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Jake Walman, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 11:03BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:07SJSLuke KuninAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alexander Wennberg · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:07BUFDylan CozensAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:27BUFAlex TuchSHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:59BUFRasmus DahlinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:04BUFConnor Clifton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:19SJSLuke Kunin: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:19SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:19BUFSam Lafferty: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:19BUFSam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:32BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:08SJSTimothy Liljegren: Holding2 min
- P3 4:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:58SJSCarl Grundstrom: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:58BUFZach Benson: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:22BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:03BUFJason Zucker: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:02SJSJack Thompson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Krebs
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Cozens – Benson3:15
xG 0.17–0.10 (64%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Tuch – McLeod – Peterka2:57
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Quinn – Peterka – Kulich7:41
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs2:49
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power2:17
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power12:15
xG 0.32–0.32 (51%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram13:48
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 22–15goals 2–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Smith – Celebrini8:07
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Kunin9:04
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Grundstrom – Kostin – Dellandrea7:32
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Granlund – Zetterlund – Eklund10:21
xG 0.27–0.64 (30%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thompson10:16
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ceci – Walman14:03
xG 0.84–0.53 (61%)attempts 17–12goals 2–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren11:45
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).