Mon, Nov 25, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Calgary Flames 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 112 | 16 | 327 |
| OTT | 111 | 29 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:32CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 17:05OTTAdam GaudetteAssists: Ridly Greig, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:18OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 13:17OTTCole ReinhardtAssists: Ridly Greig, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 15:27CGYYegor SharangovichUnassisted · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 1:14OTTBrady TkachukPPGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 19:21CGYNazem KadriAssists: Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 12:34OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 14:57CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 17:13CGYKevin Bahl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 19:18CGYBrayden Pachal: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:18CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:18OTTRidly Greig: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:23CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:31CGYYegor Sharangovich: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:50OTTNick Cousins: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:19CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
- P3 11:11CGYRyan Lomberg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:35CGYYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zary won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Sharangovich – Coronato9:29
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko9:12
xG 0.04–0.25 (14%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Coleman – Huberdeau – Zary7:05
xG 0.11–0.37 (24%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Rooney4:01
xG 0.00–0.41 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Pachal6:07
xG 0.14–0.03 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl13:59
xG 0.69–0.71 (49%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Weegar – Miromanov12:16
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Tkachuk – Stützle8:33
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Ostapchuk6:54
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Batherson8:17
xG 0.41–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Reinhardt – Pinto – Greig6:43
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Sanderson11:10
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker5:17
xG 0.16–0.00 (98%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sanderson3:20
xG 0.03–0.27 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).