Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 0, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 010 | 013 | 029 |
| MTL | 113 | 012 | 25 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50MTLJake EvansSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 1:14MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 19:14MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Jake Evans, Arber Xhekaj · Snap, 0.79 xG0–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:58MTLBrendan Gallagher: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:56NSHMark Jankowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:11MTLDavid Savard: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:21NSHGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:56NSHColton Sissons: Interference2 min
- P3 6:30MTLKirby Dach: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:54MTLJayden Struble: Holding2 min
- P3 11:34MTLArber Xhekaj: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Nyquist – Forsberg10:29
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Evangelista – L'Heureux2:15
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Jankowski – L'Heureux3:02
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Parssinen – Svechkov2:07
xG 0.29–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Wilsby10:40
xG 0.63–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier11:42
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Josi – Skjei2:53
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Newhook8:05
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Dvorak6:40
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Armia – Evans – Heineman6:01
xG 0.02–0.28 (5%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Laine – Dach – Slafkovský10:13
xG 0.27–1.11 (20%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Struble2:21
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Savard – Matheson4:15
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Matheson – Barron3:50
xG 0.27–0.10 (74%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).