Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
San Jose Sharks 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 09 | 06 | 16 | 121 |
| TBL | 512 | 214 | 19 | 835 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26TBLCam AtkinsonAssists: Conor Geekie · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 7:29TBLConor GeekieGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 8:32TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–3
- P1 8:55TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Erik Cernak · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–4
- P1 17:45TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–5
- P2 4:16TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–6
- P2 18:32TBLNick PerbixAssists: Brayden Point, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–7
- P3 0:14SJSAlexander WennbergAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–7
- P3 6:01TBLNick PaulAssists: Brayden Point, J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–8
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:17TBLNick Paul: Holding2 min
- P1 16:32SJSJack Thompson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:16SJSWill Smith: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 8:14TBLEmil Lilleberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:49TBLCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Dellandrea – Sturm10:09
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kunin – Zetterlund6:20
xG 0.14–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Kunin5:40
xG 0.09–0.11 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Kostin – Celebrini4:12
xG 0.13–0.18 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Walman10:15
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ferraro – Thompson2:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Ceci – Liljegren2:55
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Goncalves – Geekie11:28
xG 0.47–0.18 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont9:40
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel9:25
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Point6:49
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser9:34
xG 0.77–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Cernak11:42
xG 0.58–0.26 (69%)attempts 8–12goals 3–0
- Hedman – Raddysh2:27
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).