Thu, Dec 5, 2024·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 06 | 27 | 319 |
| CAR | 115 | 213 | 27 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:13COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:05CAREric RobinsonAssists: Brent Burns, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:09CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 6:41CARJack RoslovicAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sean Walker · Snap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 14:41COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Parker Kelly, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 17:49CARMartin NecasPPGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:13COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–4
- P3 19:44CARAndrei SvechnikovENAssists: Jack Drury, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:02COLCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:34CARSean Walker: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:12COLDevon Toews: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:01COLCasey Mittelstadt: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:10CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:35CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:12COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:14COLIvan Ivan: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Connor won the faceoff against Necas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:41
xG 0.85–0.93 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Nichushkin – Mittelstadt – Kovalenko4:35
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- O'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan3:33
xG 0.00–0.15 (2%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:11
xG 0.85–0.63 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski9:32
xG 0.26–0.29 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- de Haan – Ludvig9:24
xG 0.15–0.86 (15%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Jarvis11:25
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Aho – Roslovic – Svechnikov10:13
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Necas – Robinson – Drury9:10
xG 0.48–0.37 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kotkaniemi – Blake4:06
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker11:20
xG 0.59–0.10 (86%)attempts 15–1goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield13:10
xG 0.70–0.24 (74%)attempts 18–7goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin15:27
xG 0.78–0.92 (46%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).