Sat, Dec 7, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 19 | 010 | 227 |
| PIT | 26 | 010 | 313 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 6:35TORMitch MarnerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 14:15PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 2:32TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 5:34PITMichael BuntingPPGWGAssists: Bryan Rust, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 19:20PITBlake LizotteENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–4
- P3 19:34PITKris LetangENAssists: Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:56TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:34PITKris Letang: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 5:33TORMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:45TORMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:48PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:24TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:47TORAlex Nylander: Holding2 min
- P3 17:47PITBryan Rust: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Knies9:57
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – Minten6:15
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Dewar5:20
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Marner – Matthews10:45
xG 0.83–1.00 (45%)attempts 16–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers15:25
xG 0.98–0.04 (96%)attempts 24–9goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit9:09
xG 0.43–0.20 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Tanev14:18
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 11–19goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell13:09
xG 0.96–0.84 (53%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Malkin – Glass – O'Connor9:25
xG 0.27–0.19 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Bunting – Puljujarvi – Lizotte8:38
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Beauvillier – Acciari6:13
xG 0.01–0.22 (6%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pickering13:43
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Letang – Grzelcyk2:20
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Pickering2:18
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).