Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 014 | 28 | 00 | 227 |
| OTT | 18 | 013 | 19 | 11 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Claude Giroux, Adam Gaudette · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 2:40PITBlake LizotteAssists: Noel Acciari, Matt Grzelcyk · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:38OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 12:42PITKris LetangUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- OT 1:46OTTBrady TkachukGWGAssists: Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 0:42PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:35PITBlake Lizotte: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Bunting – Tomasino13:00
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte9:04
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Glass – O'Connor8:23
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:59
xG 0.38–0.73 (34%)attempts 20–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson5:04
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk8:01
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Graves6:42
xG 0.14–0.14 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Gaudette – Stützle11:10
xG 0.61–0.45 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:44
xG 0.36–0.23 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Gregor – Greig – Ostapchuk8:03
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto11:45
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Sanderson19:48
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven10:24
xG 0.13–0.45 (23%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot21:44
xG 0.50–0.86 (37%)attempts 14–24goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).