Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 110 | 05 | 221 |
| WSH | 112 | 113 | 26 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:36BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Jordan Greenway, Ryan McLeod · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 17:09WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: John Carlson, Connor McMichael · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 5:11WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Jakob Chychrun · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 7:24BUFJiri KulichAssists: Bowen Byram, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 11:05WSHDylan StromeGWGAssists: John Carlson, Taylor Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:30WSHJakob ChychrunENAssists: John Carlson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.35 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:20BUFOwen Power: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:06BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:20BUFDylan Cozens: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:20WSHMartin Fehérváry: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:55WSHBrandon Duhaime: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:11BUFBowen Byram: Interference2 min
- P2 18:35WSHConnor McMichael: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Kulich – Benson5:40
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod11:17
xG 0.51–0.57 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka3:23
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Krebs7:39
xG 0.16–0.36 (32%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Byram2:58
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Byram – Johnson10:54
xG 0.86–0.83 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Power14:19
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Raddysh – McMichael10:38
xG 0.81–0.46 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas11:23
xG 0.24–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Miroshnichenko8:29
xG 0.57–0.76 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Lapierre6:47
xG 0.25–0.68 (27%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry4:27
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry2:03
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun3:56
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).