Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 210 | 013 | 38 | 531 |
| SEA | 18 | 08 | 06 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:24SEABrandon MontourPPAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Shane Wright · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:16TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nick Perbix · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:21TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Darren Raddysh, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 4:03TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Bat, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 16:08TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
- P3 19:38TBLDeclan CarlileAssists: Luke Glendening, Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:34TBLEmil Lilleberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:20SEAChandler Stephenson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:42SEARyker Evans: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:58SEAVince Dunn: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:49TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point11:36
xG 1.16–0.68 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Paul – Chaffee – Goncalves10:03
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Eyssimont6:22
xG 0.19–0.07 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie10:29
xG 0.28–0.86 (25%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Raddysh2:10
xG 0.66–0.03 (96%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg17:21
xG 0.65–0.43 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:13
xG 0.77–0.74 (51%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Tolvanen – Wright10:38
xG 1.14–0.42 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Beniers – Winterton2:14
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Burakovsky – McCann11:21
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Stephens – Kartye – Winterton7:39
xG 0.16–0.43 (27%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorgen – Evans13:48
xG 1.08–0.81 (57%)attempts 18–14goals 0–2
- Larsson – Oleksiak2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:01
xG 0.54–0.55 (50%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).