Tue, Dec 17, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 19 | 17 | 217 | 433 |
| SJS | 010 | 214 | 111 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:18WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 1:52SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Nikolai Kovalenko, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 7:28WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 17:11SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Jake Walman, Tyler Toffoli · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:44SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Jake Walman · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 11:56WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 18:47WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Mason Appleton · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:43WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:09SJSShakir Mukhamadullin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06WPGColin Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:38SJSAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:40WPGNino Niederreiter: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sturm won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:32
xG 1.16–0.55 (68%)attempts 25–13goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti4:39
xG 0.37–0.01 (99%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:02
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Kupari3:30
xG 0.01–0.05 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:20
xG 0.95–0.58 (62%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Miller – Stanley11:54
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Fleury – Pionk17:13
xG 0.50–1.02 (33%)attempts 22–17goals 0–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kovalenko – Celebrini10:52
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Wennberg – Eklund – Smith11:43
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Kunin – Grundstrom – Sturm10:36
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Granlund – Goodrow – Zetterlund13:12
xG 0.46–1.11 (30%)attempts 10–25goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Rutta2:10
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren12:29
xG 0.65–0.64 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Ceci – Mukhamadullin2:11
xG 0.04–0.04 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).