Thu, Dec 19, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 08 | 311 | 431 |
| SJS | 010 | 211 | 013 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 4:26SJSCarl GrundstromAssists: Jan Rutta, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 9:29SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Cody Ceci, Luke Kunin · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 8:26COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 13:06COLJoel KivirantaGWGAssists: Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 15:58COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:07SJSCarl Grundstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:35SJSJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:35COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:35SJSJake Walman: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:29COLIvan Ivan: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 15:10SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:33COLParker Kelly: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 7:59SJSBarclay Goodrow: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:49COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P3 10:54COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:58
xG 1.09–0.15 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – O'Connor – Kiviranta7:28
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Colton – Mittelstadt2:08
xG 0.02–0.01 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Colton – Mittelstadt6:07
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Malinski8:24
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar5:30
xG 0.58–0.11 (85%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Girard – Malinski3:08
xG 0.13–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Kunin – Grundstrom – Sturm6:09
xG 0.01–0.06 (12%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Eklund – Smith7:24
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Kovalenko – Celebrini9:24
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Granlund – Goodrow – Zetterlund10:36
xG 0.19–1.30 (13%)attempts 6–24goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Rutta7:07
xG 0.38–0.10 (79%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Rutta – Thrun4:33
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Thrun – Mukhamadullin7:37
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).