Sat, Dec 28, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 112 | 26 | 325 |
| ANA | 010 | 112 | 011 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:03PHINoah CatesAssists: Bobby Brink, Cam York · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 15:38ANATroy TerryAssists: Radko Gudas, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 5:57PHIMorgan FrostGWGAssists: Scott Laughton · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 17:40PHIJoel FarabeeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:30ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:25PHIMatvei Michkov: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:45PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:50ANATroy Terry: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:07ANARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P2 15:55PHITyson Foerster: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:38ANADrew Helleson: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:30PHIJoel Farabee: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster10:56
xG 0.91–0.32 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett5:14
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Farabee4:44
xG 0.18–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Laughton – Frost – Farabee2:30
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York12:48
xG 1.03–0.41 (72%)attempts 14–14goals 2–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula12:33
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Seeler – Drysdale11:23
xG 0.11–0.26 (28%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestFabbri – McTavish – Gauthier11:06
xG 0.59–0.44 (57%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry10:31
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Lundeström6:17
xG 0.02–0.32 (6%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Leason – Carlsson8:33
xG 0.27–0.58 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Helleson11:15
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe12:20
xG 0.09–0.26 (26%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Trouba – Zellweger13:28
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).