Sat, Dec 28, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Washington Capitals 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 215 | 18 | 29 | 532 |
| TOR | 114 | 113 | 010 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14TORJohn TavaresAssists: Simon Benoit, Max Pacioretty · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 4:46WSHAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Hendrix Lapierre · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 8:54WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Taylor Raddysh · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:10TORBobby McMannAssists: Max Domi, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 9:53WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 12:36WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 16:37WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.83 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 15:41WSHAliaksei Protas: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:00WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Strome – Protas6:54
xG 0.24–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael3:34
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Vrana – Mangiapane – Lapierre8:54
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime10:42
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin12:06
xG 0.30–0.24 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry3:00
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun13:21
xG 0.47–0.50 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Marner11:15
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – Knies11:04
xG 0.95–0.63 (60%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Domi – Robertson – McMann7:46
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Lorentz – Kampf – Dewar8:51
xG 0.13–0.31 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe16:49
xG 0.98–0.51 (66%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit13:05
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly16:56
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 22–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).