Sun, Dec 29, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Washington Capitals 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 09 | 112 | 227 |
| DET | 413 | 07 | 07 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:19DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Ben Chiarot, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 6:44DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 12:04WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Connor McMichael · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 12:35DETAlex DeBrincatGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P1 14:18DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 10:27WSHNic DowdAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Brandon Duhaime · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:33WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:28WSHAliaksei Protas: Holding2 min
- P1 15:13WSHDylan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:13DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 3:13DETSimon Edvinsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:35DETJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:17WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:32DETSimon Edvinsson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Wilson – Dubois – Protas9:28
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Dowd – Raddysh – Duhaime6:48
xG 0.18–0.36 (33%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – McMichael9:37
xG 0.29–0.55 (35%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Eller – Vrana – Mangiapane5:31
xG 0.24–0.65 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin3:58
xG 0.25–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry9:13
xG 0.33–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Roy – Chychrun2:12
xG 0.01–0.04 (16%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Veleno – Raymond10:12
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat9:59
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Motte – Rasmussen – Kasper7:11
xG 0.11–0.24 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren11:09
xG 0.13–0.29 (32%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edvinsson15:49
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Holl – Gustafsson7:56
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider16:00
xG 0.62–0.72 (46%)attempts 11–21goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).