Tue, Dec 31, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 2, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 110 | 15 | 223 |
| DAL | 012 | 110 | 311 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:49DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:20BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Tage Thompson, Bowen Byram · Snap, 0.38 xG1–1
- P3 2:35DALJason RobertsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 4:57BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Sam Lafferty, Ryan McLeod · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 11:32DALWyatt JohnstonGWGAssists: Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 18:23DALEsa LindellENAssists: Jason Robertson, Casey DeSmith · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–4
Penalties (1)
- P1 17:12BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Kulich
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Malenstyn – McLeod7:57
xG 0.51–0.11 (82%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Krebs – Kulich – Benson11:08
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka11:50
xG 0.17–0.64 (21%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson12:38
xG 0.89–1.77 (33%)attempts 15–24goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Dahlin – Byram18:21
xG 1.18–1.35 (47%)attempts 16–20goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Power17:56
xG 0.39–1.03 (27%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson11:32
xG 0.18–0.84 (18%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Duchene – Johnston15:14
xG 2.28–0.59 (80%)attempts 30–16goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Hintz – Steel2:09
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hintz – Robertson9:22
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 2–2
- Blackwell – Steel – Hryckowian5:33
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lyubushkin15:18
xG 1.78–0.73 (71%)attempts 23–18goals 0–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:38
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dumba – Harley13:19
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).