Thu, Jan 2, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 312 | 06 | 28 | 526 |
| CBJ | 17 | 25 | 113 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42CBJJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Cole Sillinger, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 6:55DETPatrick KaneAssists: Andrew Copp, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.30 xG1–1
- P1 14:39DETErik GustafssonAssists: Justin Holl · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 17:09DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 11:09CBJZach WerenskiUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:40CBJSean MonahanAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 4:54DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 17:19CBJJames van RiemsdykAssists: Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 19:24DETJonatan BerggrenGWGAssists: Tyler Motte, Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:47DETJoseph Veleno: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 12:05CBJDmitri Voronkov: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:02CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:58CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:19DETJonatan Berggren: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 0:00CBJDmitri Voronkov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00CBJZach Werenski: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat10:37
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Larkin – Veleno – Raymond13:14
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Rasmussen – Kasper7:55
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 12–4goals 1–2
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren11:24
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edvinsson14:16
xG 1.00–0.26 (79%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider18:23
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Holl – Gustafsson10:13
xG 0.13–0.47 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov15:15
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Olivier – Johnson – Sillinger11:32
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Marchenko – Pyyhtia2:02
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Aston-Reese – Fantilli9:10
xG 0.50–0.74 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Mateychuk16:00
xG 0.47–0.27 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Severson – Werenski5:43
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro15:04
xG 0.24–0.21 (53%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).