Mon, Jan 6, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 19 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 328 |
| BUF | 19 | 29 | 04 | 05 | 2 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42BUFAlex TuchAssists: JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 6:10WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:07BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 11:29WSHTom WilsonAssists: Aliaksei Protas, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 12:49BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 15:47WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: John Carlson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois scored
- 3. BUF Jack Quinn stopped
- 4. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
- 6. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 7. BUF JJ Peterka scored
- 8. WSH Jakob Chychrun stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:02WSHAliaksei Protas: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 5:40BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:58BUFJiri Kulich: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:58WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:46WSHDylan Strome: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:01BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:04WSHDylan Strome: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kulich won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas11:56
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Raddysh6:26
xG 0.09–0.32 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Vrana – McMichael6:48
xG 0.11–0.46 (19%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Mangiapane – Duhaime7:04
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Sandin7:46
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin8:17
xG 0.54–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Carlson – Chychrun6:27
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Peterka11:28
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Zucker – Thompson – Cozens12:33
xG 0.82–0.80 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Krebs – Kulich – Benson4:43
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Krebs – Quinn – Benson4:18
xG 0.05–0.14 (28%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram18:53
xG 0.77–0.39 (67%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Samuelsson7:53
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Power2:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).